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I think 16 pounds is perfect. Ellianna is 17 lbs 2 ounces and I think she is a little pudgY> In addition, I found with all three of my kids that they put on lots of weight the first 6 months and then slowed down. For instance, Ellianna was 7 lbs 2 ounces at birth. She gained 10 pounds in the first 6 months. I would not be surprised if she gains only 4-6 pounds in the next 6 months, which will make her a 21-23 pounder at his first birthday. My first son was born 7 lbs and 15 ounces and was only 21 pounds at his first birthday.