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The last time this happened was about 800 years ago. From what I understand, this was the idea from the start, that when he began his papacy, he was very clear it was a short term thing because of his health. Nevertheless, it's such a rare thing, it is still very shocking!
Yes, it was definitely a shock, but not a huge surprise as he had a deep devotion to St. Celestine over the course of his papacy, which was another pope who stepped down as pontiff all those years ago. It was, in my opinion, a very humble thing to do. It has been said that he is actually in very poor health right now....I have heard he is blind in one eye, nearly deaf, and possibly has pancreatic cancer. I think his concern was that the Church would need a healthy and able bodied leader during this strange time in our world. I have a 94 year old grandmother, and I am sure she could not keep the same schedule as what a Pope is expected to. All the travel and whatnot. I respect him very much to have made such a serious and humble decision.
I personally think it'd be awesome if it were cardinal Burke from the states, but I might be biased him since we've met him and he has been very pastoral to our family, personally. Cardinal Dolan is also amazing. But yeah, I kinda doubt it will be an American. But only God knows.