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What are my chances of getting pregnant?


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  #1  
June 17th, 2012, 10:18 AM
TaraJo29's Avatar Mega Super Mommy
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Hi all... haven't been around here for a while but thought this would be a good place to ask.

I have been slacking on my charting this month and have no useful temps to speak of. But I think I'm going to ovulate today based on observations and past cycles. We are supposed to be avoiding but... uh.. we used the "mercy rule" a few days ago which probably wasn't the smartest idea.

What are my chances of getting pregnant if (theoretically, of course) we had relations on Thurs and I ovulate today (Sunday)?

Any links to back up theories are appreciated.
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Last edited by TaraJo29; June 17th, 2012 at 11:11 AM.
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  #2  
June 17th, 2012, 01:54 PM
rlh27's Avatar Caleb's Mommy!
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It really depends on your personal fertility. I know several ladies who got pregnant off of one slip up early on in their fertile period, but I also know many ladies who always time intercourse perfectly but still had or are having a hard time getting pregnant. I wish I could give you a better answer, because I know it's really a non-answer.

Good luck, though! Let us know how things turn out.
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  #3  
June 17th, 2012, 02:18 PM
TaraJo29's Avatar Mega Super Mommy
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I tend to get pregnant very easily. I have 5 kids and have never tried for any of them. I have even gotten pregnant a few times the very first time I ovulated after having a baby (8 months postpartum). I just wondered if you guys thought 4 days out (or would you call that 3 days? hm) is majorly in the danger zone or just on the fringe?

I definitely ovulated today. My uterus was super sore to the touch earlier and my cervix is now closed and hard. Yipe yipe!

We wanted more kids eventually, but I wanted to wait a couple years. doh
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  #4  
June 17th, 2012, 06:33 PM
ShawnaCAN's Avatar Platinum Supermommy
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3 - 4 days before ovulation, with a history of excellent fertility - I'd say the odds are pretty good (assuming mucus was present the day you chose to BD). That said though, you really can't confirm the mucus Peak the day of...only the day after it happens.
THE angry uterus likes this.
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  #5  
June 19th, 2012, 07:17 PM
LJD3Tdance's Avatar Platinum Supermommy
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Let me say for me at that stage...I'd be pregnant, but that's if it was a for sure thing.
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  #6  
June 20th, 2012, 09:07 AM
rlh27's Avatar Caleb's Mommy!
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When do you think you'll start testing? Or will you wait until AF is late?
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  #7  
June 21st, 2012, 05:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TaraJo29 View Post
Hi all... haven't been around here for a while but thought this would be a good place to ask.

I have been slacking on my charting this month and have no useful temps to speak of. But I think I'm going to ovulate today based on observations and past cycles. We are supposed to be avoiding but... uh.. we used the "mercy rule" a few days ago which probably wasn't the smartest idea.

What are my chances of getting pregnant if (theoretically, of course) we had relations on Thurs and I ovulate today (Sunday)?

Any links to back up theories are appreciated.
Hilgers did a study shown in Kipply's" Art of NFP" that said ovulations can occur as early as 3 days before Peak day , and as late as 3 days after, but more frequently on Peak day than any other single day - it occurs more often on combinations of Peak day minus one day and peak day minus 2 days; ***have you had your peak mucus day yet? or did the brownish turn into a bleeding? I guess it may have done the latter but that bleed may be breakthrough bleeding which can be fertile // temps give more data -
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  #8  
June 21st, 2012, 10:21 PM
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Now I want to know when we get to see some stick pics! Can you tell I'm a POAS pusher? Haha
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  #9  
June 22nd, 2012, 02:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LJD3Tdance View Post
Let me say for me at that stage...I'd be pregnant, but that's if it was a for sure thing.
Yup! We got PG from DTD I believe 3 days before O. We did DTD again 2 days after (I think) and I think I had actually ovulated twice and originally was pregnant with twins but lost one early on. Super fertile here and it didn't take much to get knocked up. Good luck!
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  #10  
June 22nd, 2012, 09:24 AM
ShawnaCAN's Avatar Platinum Supermommy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ananative View Post
Hilgers did a study shown in Kipply's" Art of NFP" that said ovulations can occur as early as 3 days before Peak day , and as late as 3 days after, but more frequently on Peak day than any other single day - it occurs more often on combinations of Peak day minus one day and peak day minus 2 days; ***have you had your peak mucus day yet? or did the brownish turn into a bleeding? I guess it may have done the latter but that bleed may be breakthrough bleeding which can be fertile // temps give more data -
Hilgers has a fairly vague definition of what Peak is compared to some other methods though too, so that does have a bearing on things - a wider margin of error in determining how close ovulation is with relation to Peak. That's also why cycles can have split and double Peaks with the Creighton Model, that Hilgers created. Less specific parameters for defining peak mean there can be more than one, and it doesn't always coincide with ovulation. The Billings Ovulation Method has a more specific definition of what Peak is, and over 50 years of research (multiple studies) to show a much closer relationship between Peak/ovulation.

So the proximity of ovulation in relation to Peak really depends on how "Peak" is defined!
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  #12  
June 26th, 2012, 09:38 AM
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I recently read a new study that indicated that in the right conditions sperm can live up to a week (though this is not the average). It certainly explained some of our 'oops' babies!

Anyway, I'd put money on you joining a DDC here in the next two weeks!
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  #13  
June 30th, 2012, 05:54 AM
TaraJo29's Avatar Mega Super Mommy
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Haven't taken a test yet. I'm thinking about it. Today is 13 days post ovulation, so if I am it might be positive.

As far as the timing of "relations," well, I am as sure as I can be that I did ovulate on Sunday. My body sometimes gives me some very obvious clues. One is that I get a super sore uterus (yes, seriously.. it feels bruised. The kids plop on my lap and I'm like "oowwwwwwwwww!" My lower pelvis gets super sore to the touch). The soreness sometimes increases for days until it's VERY sore and then after I ovulate (I presume) my lower pelvic area suddenly feels fine again. This is what happened that Sunday. (Along with fertile mucus and all, of course.) I also have a dramatic cervix close-up, which happened Sunday night. It goes from high and open and soft to closed and firm in an afternoon's time. It doesn't come down from the elevated position right away... that takes more like a day or so. But the close up happens pretty quickly. So even though I wasn't temping, I'm quite sure. My temp rise always happens the day after the peak soreness/peak mucus/cervix close-up. According to the method I learned from The Couple to Couple League (sympto-thermal NFP), peak day was definitely that Sunday.

When we had relations it was one of those times where dh had already waited a while for whatever reason (busy! mad at each other, lol. etc) and then when we were getting along... and he was starting to suffer... the Mercy Rule came into play (it's not very effective at avoiding pregnancy). I just kinda hoped that I wouldn't ovulate for 6 or 7 days, but I knew I might as early as a few days, possibly. And lo and behold, it was 3 days later. I swear that man has an egg radar.

So here are the "symptoms": NO pms. NO bloating. NO headache. The most obvious one is the lack of bloating. I usually feel like a big fat hideous balloon right now, before I get my period. BUT I usually feel crazy pms-ish even when I end up being pregnant. So this is interesting.

Has anyone else had NO pms symptoms and then found out they were pregnant?
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  #14  
June 30th, 2012, 09:49 AM
ShawnaCAN's Avatar Platinum Supermommy
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Get thee to a test woman!
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  #15  
July 1st, 2012, 06:08 AM
TaraJo29's Avatar Mega Super Mommy
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Mystery solved.

"][/URL]





I can't believe I will have 6 kids. We wanted to have more eventually, but I was "planning" (outside of Mercy Rule) to wait a couple more years. Change of plans. But what makes me feel better is that my youngest will be very close to 2 yrs old, so that's not a crazy small age gap... just sooner than I planned. Insane that because I had mercy on my husband and knew we were risking it (but not knowing how soon I would ovulate), we will have a baby. Beforehand, I tried to make him agree to "the Nanny Agreement," that if I got pregnant, he would have to hire someone to help me for a couple hours each day, especially so I can homeschool. He didn't verbally agree to it, but I said he "implicitly agreed" on the fateful day of June 14, 2012.
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  #16  
July 1st, 2012, 07:20 AM
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Congratulations! That's some exciting news. Unplanned pregnancies can throw you for a loop, but by the time the 9 months is over everything fits together perfectly. Happy for you
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  #17  
July 1st, 2012, 10:00 AM
ShawnaCAN's Avatar Platinum Supermommy
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Congratulations and welcome to Club Six!
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  #18  
July 1st, 2012, 10:26 AM
rlh27's Avatar Caleb's Mommy!
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Congratulations! When are you due?
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  #19  
July 1st, 2012, 10:44 AM
TaraJo29's Avatar Mega Super Mommy
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Originally Posted by rlh27 View Post
Congratulations! When are you due?
I am due March 10.

My now-1 yr old will be 2 in April. I hope I will feel pretty well recovered by the time Hannah's 2nd birthday gets here. I can't believe I will have a newborn by the time her birthday rolls around!
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  #20  
July 1st, 2012, 11:42 AM
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Congratulations!
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