CD 18 makes more sense to me since you had a couple of pos. opk's after the 16th even if they were barely positive (the lines were at least the same color, right?) I would think the O date would be the day before or of cm dry up. The thermal shift is more definate after CD 18 as well. I'm no expert though and I'm still learning when it comes to charting
FF was doing wierd things with my O date this month so I finally overrode it to agree with my TCOYF chart.