20% chance?

bev26 · #1 August 18th, 2009, 08:53 PM

So I keep seeing this figure on different sites that couples, on average, have a 20% chance of conceiving each cycle. Where does that number come from? It seems kind of ridiculous to have a statistic for something that so many factors can affect from age to how many times you BD. I guess I'm just wondering because it's a bit frustrating to think that if my DH and I BD every day for five days prior to my O that we would still have a 20% chance (unless of course there's some fertility issue with one of us that we're not aware of).

Can anyone explain if there's more to this 1 in 5 chance than I'm getting?

OnesOnTheWay · #2 August 18th, 2009, 10:19 PM

Could it be something to do with the sperm that can actually make it?
Otherwise I have no idea. I am bad at even thinking about that sort of stuff..

aussie_mama22 · #3 August 19th, 2009, 12:26 AM

I read that the 20% chance was for a perfectly healthy couple with no fertility problems. So that must mean our percentage is really low!!

CandaceDianne · #4 August 19th, 2009, 04:20 AM

I dont know enough about that statistic, but its definilty not the first time I have heard it mentioned. Its sad that you have less than 1/4 of a chance of getting preggo.

Coley · #5 August 19th, 2009, 05:47 AM

I think it comes from the fact that everything has to be just right.

The egg only lives for 24 hours.
Are the sperm still alive by the time the egg comes out?
Is there an issue with the DNA of the sperm or the egg?
Will the fertilized egg implant properly?

There are so many things that can go wrong... even for perfectly healthy couples. So that's really where I think the statistic is coming from. The conditions have to be right... that's why it really is a miracle!

bev26 · #6 August 19th, 2009, 06:55 AM

That's kind of depressing, but you're right, it does make it more like a miracle when it finally happens.

Coley · #7 August 19th, 2009, 07:38 AM

Don't I know it? It is depressing when you read the statistics... makes you feel like "How will it ever happen?" But there are loads of people walking around... so obviously it DOES happen, kwim? LOL!

Admin-pattyandthemoos · #8 August 19th, 2009, 07:57 AM

Well here is what I think, I think the stats are 20% in general but I don't think that means that YOU necessarily have a 20% chance. This is just my opinion and since I don't actually have the data and research in front of me, I have no idea how they came to this conclusion. I think this is a consensus on everyone ttc with different age ranges, level of effort, etc. The older gals probably bring down the stats a little. The gals that don't have a clue when to bd probably bring down the stats a little. I would love to know the stats for achieving pregnancy when everything is timed perfectly. I think that would be a more useful statistic.

Just my thoughts.

jsim · #9 August 19th, 2009, 01:56 PM

In nursing school we spent a lot of time on it, and the odds are super low, which is why its so amazing that people can have accidents. The sperm have to fight a very long uphill battle in horrible conditions with very little food. Just imagine a normal person running a half marathon in phoenix in the summer with only a small amount of water...... How many ppl do you think would actually make it to the finish line... And then have the strength to break thru something really tough... It is a huge miracle!!!!