Pretty sure I'm out

Shalyn · #1 September 13th, 2009, 01:03 PM

Temp dropped yesterday and today.........I will probably start spotting tomorrow or Tuesday and thats stupid witch will be here Wed or Thurs. This sucks........I just don't know how you ladies do it for months and months.

jensma · #2 September 13th, 2009, 01:21 PM

Oh i definitely don't htink you're out yet!! Your temp is still well above the CL. Don't worry just yet!! RELAX!!!

jenine · #3 September 13th, 2009, 02:00 PM

Agreed! No reason to think that temp drop means anything yet. Keep your chin up and try not to stress out about it.

I will tell you how I get through it. It took 5 cycles for me to get pregnant which of course isn't too long given the averages, but it seems like forever when you're the one going through it. Since I am a statistician, I created a cumulative probability chart based on the 15-25% chance of pregnancy each month. In statistics, if you repeat the trial over and over again, even though you still have that 15-20% chance each month, the chances that you have a BFN repeatedly gets lower every time. It's just like tossing a coin. You have a 50/50 chance of heads or tails each toss, but as you keep tossing if you keep getting nothing but tails, tails, tails, the chances of continuing to get only tails gets lower with each toss. That's kind of oversimplifying it but you get the picture I'm sure.

So, using that calculation, by cycle 5 it was more like 60% chance that we would get our BFP that time...and so on, higher each cycle you try. That's how I made myself feel better when AF showed up. I would tell myself, "Well, next cycle is such-and-such percent chance, which is higher than last month".

This probably doesn't make any sense and/or bolster the spirits of anyone who isn't a stats geek like me...but that's what I found helpful!

Coley · #4 September 13th, 2009, 07:54 PM

That's awesome!! I love when science can explain something and make me feel better at the same time!!

Your temps are still far enough above your cover line that I think you are jumping the gun on calling yourself out. You are definitely still in!

Shalyn · #5 September 14th, 2009, 05:29 AM

I am just judging on what happened last cycle. Had a little rise this morning but don't know if my temp has been accurate because we were out of town over the weekend and then this morning my 5 year old came in my bed like an hour and a half before I normally temp so I just took my temp then because I had to go to the bathroom.