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I think your o date looks right. You can have twinges and o pains before you ovulate, during, and after. I wouldn't base your o date on ovulation pains because it is hard to say what is causing the twinges and pains.
I think it's correct. You CP can change so often during the day. During the middle of the day, mine is always lower, and by night and the next morning it's higher. Hard for me to really trust that sign. I think they got it!
Your O date looks right, however, you might get another temp shift and then maybe my opinion would change. I don't think you O'd on cd15 no matter what, no enough of a temp change, but you O'd cd16 last cycle and even later than that in past cycles so it's possible you might see a bigger temp shift and that you are just Oing now or getting ready to O. If it were me I'd bd just to be on the safe side and see what happens. Good luck!