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Oh that's tricky! It does look like you possibly ovulated on CD 15. Are the open circles because of a different wake-up time? Unfortunately, I don't think we'll know for sure until we see a few more temps. The temp drop at 2 DPO could be a corpus luteum dip. I have also had temp spikes like that before ovulation but I have no idea why. I always figured it was my body just trying to mess with me. I wish I had more concrete advice for you.
If your temps are correct, there is no way that you have ovulated. IF your temp on day 13 is incorrect and your next few temps don't go any lower, there is a good chance you ovulated.
And to answer your question, in about 5 years of looking at FF charts, I would say they are wrong roughly 80% of the time. I honestly don't know how they can even pretend to call themselves charting software. That said, if YOU know how to chart, you can read and interpret it yourself.
Last edited by Sk8ermaiden; September 7th, 2011 at 01:33 PM.