Ovulation doesn't fall 14 days after AF starts, it falls 14 days (on average) BEFORE AF starts. Let me explain...
The typical 28 day cycle isn't really all that typical, it is something that was a low-end average, easy to calculate, and therefore used for birth control. Now most women assume they're supposed to be at 28 days, but as you know (at 31-33) that just isn't true for most ladies!!
There are three phases to your cycle : follicular, ovulation, and luteal phases.
The follicular phase starts with the first day of your period, as the follicle develops and prepares to release an egg.
Ovulation is obvious, that is the phase you are trying to find now. As you may or may not already know, an egg will only survive about 24 hours after ovulation, but sperm can survive for up to 5 days - so the 5 days preceding and the 1 day following ovulation (so 7 days total) are your most fertile times.
The luteal phase is the phase in which your uterus prepares for the implantation of the fertilized egg by thickening your lining, etc. If implantation doesn't occur, the lining sheds, resulting in good old AF.
Now, the follicular phase can change in length because of stress/health/other factors. The luteal phase typically doesn't change in length. So the most accurate way of determining when you ovulate is to determine the length of your luteal phase (which for many women is approx. 14 days), and count BACKWARDS from the first day of your next expected period.
Occording to that logic, if your luteal phase was 14 days, you would have ovulated on the 17th to 19th day of your cycle - but again, many women differ. If your luteal phase was, for example, only 10 days, you would have ovulated yesterday, today, or tomorrow. Some women only have 5-6 days between ovulation and menstruation (although this is less common.)
It is also entirely possible for you to have an anovulatory cycle this month, and not ovulate at all. Oddly enough, stressing over testing for ovulation can delay, or even prevent it - so try not to worry so much, and it will come.
Watch for the typical physical symptoms of course, including body temp. if you have a basal thermometer (that is the most reliable way without an OPK) but keep an eye on your CM (cervical mucus) as well. Once you get the stretchy, clear EWCM you'll be ovulating within a few days (most likely, I'm not a doctor I can't guarantee!)
Anyway hope that helps!
- Cheryl W.