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I read a very interesting article about population growth vs. contraction. Here is just one portion of the article. Do you have any concerns about the effect low reproduction rate will have on the United States, Canada, Western Europe in the future?
One-Child marked a radical change in the trajectory of China’s population, from staggering growth to probable contraction. In 1950, China had 550 million people; today it is home to 1.33 billion. According to projections from the United Nations’ Population Division, -China’s population will peak at 1.458 billion in 2030. But then it will begin shrinking. By 2050, China will be down to 1.408 billion and losing 20 million people every five years.
At the same time, the average age in China will rise dramatically. In 2005, China’s median age was 32. By 2050, it will be 45, and a quarter of the Chinese population will be over the age of 65. The government’s pension system is almost nonexistent, and One-Child has eliminated the traditional support system of the extended family—most people no longer have brothers, sisters, aunts, uncles, cousins, nieces, or nephews. It is unclear what sort of havoc this atomization will wreak on their society. China will have 330 million senior citizens with no one to care for them and no way to pay for their upkeep. It is, Eberstadt observed, “a slow-motion humanitarian tragedy already underway.”
By 2050, the age structure in China will be such that there are only 1.6 workers—today the country has 5.4—to support each retiree. The government will be forced to either: (1) substantially cut spending (in areas such as defense and public works) in order to shift resources to care for the elderly or (2) impose radically higher tax burdens on younger workers. The first option risks China’s international and military ambitions; the second risks revolution.
No, we don't need a high reproduction rate when we are a country which still has millions who desire to enter our country. I am also okay with declining rates considering the environmental issue we are under.
Population growth in America is mostly covered by immigration (only, not *mostly*, but I think it balances out). Even if we aren't replacing our parents (I think we're just a smidge below at like 1.4 right? I can look it up tomorrow), immigration should take care of any major gap.
In China, I doubt that's the case, and they seem kind of screwed. However, I'm not sure what would have been a better solution to their population issue. The government pays to feed and educate all those people, and money isn't unlimited. They had to decrease population growth somehow, or risk revolt because they couldn't afford to feed and educate enough people.
Most of our immigrants are from Mexico and Mexico and actually all of Latin America is facing the same drop in fertility that the US is. In Mexico, for instance, the fertility rate was 6.82 in 1970. It dropped to 5.3 in 1980, 3.61 in 1990, and 2.75 in 2000. It now sits at 2.1. That is a more severe drop than the US has experienced. This is will likely result in a great reduction in immigration.
I think currently our reproduction rate is just barely above 2. I'll try and look it up too but I know you need 2.1 to keep a steady population and we are just below that I think.
Anyway, I'll read up a bit and and answer tomorrow.
wow! thanks - that is fun - check out how drastic Mexico's drop has been compared with US. If you look at singapore - I know way back when the government tried to introduce rewards and penalties to try and decrease their fertility rate - then in the 90's realized it was dropping too quickly and introduced other rewards to try and get it to increase again but it is continuing to drop. I don't think US will ever have that big of a problem because, so far at least, we tend not to let our government have that much control over us, but we'll see.
wow! thanks - that is fun - check out how drastic Mexico's drop has been compared with US. If you look at singapore - I know way back when the government tried to introduce rewards and penalties to try and decrease their fertility rate - then in the 90's realized it was dropping too quickly and introduced other rewards to try and get it to increase again but it is continuing to drop. I don't think US will ever have that big of a problem because, so far at least, we tend not to let our government have that much control over us, but we'll see.
II thought it was interesting that some places I would assume the rates would increase had an actual decline. DH's family is originally from Poland, then came not long before DH was born, also during Russia's communistic rule over Poland. From what they had told me of how things were at the time with the costs to live, house yourself etc, and some of the methods used to discourage family growth. I thought there would have been a growth after the fall of communism but there was also a decline there even with their current economy doing much better with the introduction of the euro.
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