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Chart newbie - what are my chances?

Forum: Fertility Charting


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December 9th, 2011, 06:42 PM
HopeTea's Avatar Cautiously expecting #1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Japan
Posts: 903
First of all, I should tell you my chart is probably not all that accurate because of the thermometer I've been using. I have since bought a more accurate one, but I decided to keep using the old one this cycle just for the sake of catching a pattern. Secondly, when I first started charting, I took my temperatures at different times and also missed a few days. There is also one discarded temp from a few days ago when I temped 15 minutes after I got up (forgot again ). Now on to the point!

I was hoping some of you might be able to help with some questions I have regarding my chart:

1. Why Monday and not Sunday? I heard that the temp spike occurs right after O, and my temp on Sunday was dramatically higher than on Saturday. Also, I checked out some other charts on the site, and I saw that the pattern of lowest temp followed by temp spike was common. In these charts, the day of the spike seemed to be when FF detected O for those women.

2. Does the negative OPK on Monday offer any clues as to when O took place? I know the negative result indicates that the surge has already taken place, but does it mean that O had likely already taken place as well? Or could it still have occurred at anytime throughout the day on Monday? I wonder about this, of course, because I'm trying my best to determine our chances since our closest BD was on Saturday.

3. What are my chances looking like? I know it's ideal to BD the day before & the day of O, but what do you think? Could we have been close enough? Has anyone had a pattern like this and ended up with their BFP? I'm really looking for some hope (hence the over-analyzing), but more than that I want realistic expectations! So I'd love to hear what you ladies think.

This is my first time charting, and I didn't realize O had probably occurred until today when the cross-hairs appeared. Sometimes my cycles are long, so I was expecting it to occur later in my cycle. I guess I learned some valuable lessons this time!

Anyway, thanks in advance for any interpretation assistance!
Jack & Hiro + January 2, 2012

Last edited by HopeTea; December 9th, 2011 at 07:12 PM.
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December 9th, 2011, 08:38 PM
Mom2JDub's Avatar (formerly junie22)
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: California
Posts: 11,271
I responded in your journal... but I want some of the real charting pros to answer your questions.

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December 11th, 2011, 10:18 PM
Platinum Supermommy
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 10,537
In order for FF to mark when O has taken place, you need to have a sustained temperature rise for at least 3 consecutive days. This means that your temperature needs to stay above your coverline and not just be a spike, if that makes sense. On Sunday, it DID spike but the next day, went back down below your coverline.

OPK's are really dependent on the person. I've gotten positive OPK's up to the day AFTER O. Some people get negatives 2 days before O occurs. It all just really depends.

It's definitely possible to get pregnant 2 days before O. They say that, generally, sperm can live up to 72 hours, though I have heard of women getting pregnant from intercourse 5 days before O, so there is definitely still a chance!
Shelley, mom to:

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December 13th, 2011, 06:41 AM
LifesGood's Avatar Platinum Supermommy
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 7,944
1. Why Monday and not Sunday?
The PP is right you need a sustained rise not just a spike and I think that the 3 days after O all have to be higher than the past 6 days or something similar to that. Shawna would know. A tip for next time. If you are temping orally try to temp everyday even during AF. your trends might look a little different and your cover line might be lower if you had more pre ovulation temps.

2. Does the negative OPK on Monday offer any clues as to when O took place?
I never used OPKs myself. they seem very touchy. I know that even if you take one every day you can still ovulate without getting a positive. I tend to say that a positive can help confirm O but a negative doesnt mean it didnt happen

3. What are my chances looking like?

You do have a chance. Sperm can live for up to 5 days if you are fertile when you DTD. you dont necessarily have to DTD the day before and the day of. What I always did was try for every other day until O was confirmed. then you hit either the day before and after or the day of and 2 before...

Jaidynsmum is my siggy hero!

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December 13th, 2011, 04:21 PM
HopeTea's Avatar Cautiously expecting #1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Japan
Posts: 903
Thanks so much to all who replied. Since the initial post, FF has changed my O to Friday. I'm still hoping the first assessment was in the right ballpark, but I'm not going to worry about it anymore this cycle. I know my temps haven't been accurate, so no matter how long I stare at this chart, it's not going to suddenly turn into an obvious answer. Thanks again for all the tips and useful information!

Can't wait for next cycle to start!
Jack & Hiro + January 2, 2012

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December 19th, 2011, 09:48 AM
LifesGood's Avatar Platinum Supermommy
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 7,944
i tink what FF has now looks reasonable. its interesting that your temps were so erratic pre O and have leveled now

Jaidynsmum is my siggy hero!

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